Tuesday, 18 July 2017

RCE Cap - from a PE & PB perspective

Image result for RCE Capital
The general view is that the current market valuation is not really cheap and many stocks are at their fair value or over valued. There are some that appears real cheap but usually have reasons why they are so cheap. When I reviewed my own portfolio, I found this stock of mine still appears cheap. Hence, I decided to do a comparison with another stock in the same sector if there are specific reasons for its low valuation.
Though its scale and scope of services is nothing near AEON Credit ( may be that is why it's current PE is lower than 8 while AEON Credit's PE is more than 10 ??), I would like to do a quick comparison to see whether it is a better choice compared to AEON Credit.

FY 15 RCE Cap
RM'000
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Total
Revenue 30,411  32,351  33,540  34,884  131,186 
Profit After Tax 6,876  5,645  3,131  11,164  26,816 
Net profit margin%22.6%17.4%9.3%32.0%20.4%
Net Impairment loss on Receivable 5,962  7,850  6,878  3,247  23,937 
Loan & receivables 950,340  999,581  1,034,035  1,069,917  1,013,468 
Impairment loss as % of Loan & Receivables0.6%0.8%0.7%0.3%
FY 16 RCE Cap

RM'000


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Total
Revenue  37,489  39,043  41,552  44,302  162,386 
Profit After Tax 9,437  10,215  13,003  6,916  39,571 
Net profit margin%25.2%26.2%31.3%15.6%24.4%
Net Impairment loss on Receivable 7,973  6,510  7,193  9,194  30,870 
Loan & receivables 1,114,984  1,160,660  1,213,120  1,260,442  1,187,302 
Impairment loss as % of Loan & Receivables0.7%0.6%0.6%0.7%
FY 17 RCE Cap
RM'000
FY 18
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Total
Q1
Revenue 51,935  56,160  57,982  57,254  223,331 
??
Profit After Tax 17,528  18,402  21,774  21,245  78,949 
??
Net profit margin%33.7%32.8%37.6%37.1%35.4%
Net Impairment loss on Receivable 4,432  6,777  8,927  6,996  27,132 
6,000??
Loan & receivables 1,298,851  1,354,080  1,386,121  1,411,561  1,362,653 
Impairment loss as % of Loan & Receivables0.3%0.5%0.6%0.5%
RCE Capital
RM'000
FY 15
FY 16
FY 17
FY  18 Q1
Revenue 131,186  162,386  223,331 
Profit After Tax 26,816  39,571  78,949 
Net profit margin%20.4%24.4%35.4%#DIV/0!
Net Impairment loss on Receivable 23,937  30,870  27,132 
6,000??
Loan & Receivables  1,069,917  1,260,442  1,411,561 
Impairment loss as % of Loan & Receivables2.2%2.4%1.9%
AEON Credit
RM'000
FY 15
FY 16
FY 17
FY  18 Q1
Revenue 852,805  965,234  1,101,955  302,282 
Profit After Tax 207,369  228,222  265,027  75,812 
Net profit margin%24.3%23.6%24.1%25.1%
Net Impairment loss on Receivable 224,917  288,420  306,163  82,651 
Loan & receivables 4,517,045  5,404,916  6,438,703  6,669,743 
Impairment loss as % of Loan & Receivables5.0%5.3%4.8%1.2%


FY 17  
Price
No of shares (mil)
Market Cap (RM' mil)
PAT (RM'mil)
EPS (sen)
PE
PB
Dividend yield %
ROE
AEON Credit  13.12   216   2,834   265   128.8   10.2   1.8  3.3% 18.1%
RCE Cap  1.68   354   595   78.9   22.3   7.5   1.3  1.8% 17.0%
AEON Credit has slightly better score in ROE (18% vs 17%) and Dividend yield (3.3% vs 1.8%) while RCE Cap looks "cheaper" from PE (7.5 vs 10) and PB (1.3 vs 1.8) perspective. RCE Cap has a lower impairment % because its personal financing side is mainly dealing with Government servant with auto deduction from salary, which I believe has resulted in lower default rate.
RCE Cap performance has improved drastically in FY 17 with the additional funding from Sukuk programme and its Loan and Receivables impairment ratio has come down from 2.6% to 2% (Aeon Credit is at around 5%). Unlike banks, from what I understand, RCE Cap is not subject to MFRS 9 that will come into effect on 1 Jan 2018, which has more stringent requirement on provision for credit losses. (Note: apologise for misrepresentation here, based on FY17 Annual Report issued on 21 July, RCE Cap is adopting MFRS 9 from FY 19 onwards).  
To me, though RCE Cap appears smaller in scope and size, but its impairment seems well controlled and with better PB & PE in comparison, I believe it should give me potentially higher return on investment. The only constraint I see in RCE Cap is its funding. The Rm900 mil Sukuk programme is utilised close to Rm520 mil and it has short term loan Rm306 mil due for settlement this year, but the good news is it will be replacing old debts with Sukuk debt at a lower interest rate, which will improve its profit margin further.
Though the dividend appears lower in FY17 (partly due to the special dividend and capital repayment carried out in FY16 for more efficient capital structure), personally I am in favour of this capital allocation at this stage as it needs to retain more cash for lending and grow further. Due to the fund constraint, I am not surprise if it will issue more debt papers and may have a cash call for expansion. I will be more than happy to subscribe more if that come (Aeon Credit has just completed a right issue exercise lately).
Overall, I still believe the consumer financing sector has room to grow (AEON Credit Q1 FY18 shows promising growth) and  similarly RCE Cap has good chance to deliver a higher profit in FY18. In the absence of any big negative news surrounding RCE Cap, I have just added more shares lately as I see it is still undervalued at 1.69 and I expect there will still be growth in its business.

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