The general view is that the current market valuation is not really cheap and many stocks are at their fair value or over valued. There are some that appears real cheap but usually have reasons why they are so cheap. When I reviewed my own portfolio, I found this stock of mine still appears cheap. Hence, I decided to do a comparison with another stock in the same sector if there are specific reasons for its low valuation.
Though its scale and scope of services is nothing near AEON Credit ( may be that is why it's current PE is lower than 8 while AEON Credit's PE is more than 10 ??), I would like to do a quick comparison to see whether it is a better choice compared to AEON Credit.
FY 15 | RCE Cap |
RM'000
|
||||
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q3
|
Q4
|
Total
|
||
Revenue | 30,411 | 32,351 | 33,540 | 34,884 | 131,186 | |
Profit After Tax | 6,876 | 5,645 | 3,131 | 11,164 | 26,816 | |
Net profit margin% | 22.6% | 17.4% | 9.3% | 32.0% | 20.4% | |
Net Impairment loss on Receivable | 5,962 | 7,850 | 6,878 | 3,247 | 23,937 | |
Loan & receivables | 950,340 | 999,581 | 1,034,035 | 1,069,917 | 1,013,468 | |
Impairment loss as % of Loan & Receivables | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | ||
FY 16 | RCE Cap |
RM'000
| ||||
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q3
|
Q4
|
Total
|
||
Revenue | 37,489 | 39,043 | 41,552 | 44,302 | 162,386 | |
Profit After Tax | 9,437 | 10,215 | 13,003 | 6,916 | 39,571 | |
Net profit margin% | 25.2% | 26.2% | 31.3% | 15.6% | 24.4% | |
Net Impairment loss on Receivable | 7,973 | 6,510 | 7,193 | 9,194 | 30,870 | |
Loan & receivables | 1,114,984 | 1,160,660 | 1,213,120 | 1,260,442 | 1,187,302 | |
Impairment loss as % of Loan & Receivables | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | ||
FY 17 | RCE Cap |
RM'000
|
FY 18
|
|||
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q3
|
Q4
|
Total
|
Q1
|
|
Revenue | 51,935 | 56,160 | 57,982 | 57,254 | 223,331 |
??
|
Profit After Tax | 17,528 | 18,402 | 21,774 | 21,245 | 78,949 |
??
|
Net profit margin% | 33.7% | 32.8% | 37.6% | 37.1% | 35.4% | |
Net Impairment loss on Receivable | 4,432 | 6,777 | 8,927 | 6,996 | 27,132 |
6,000??
|
Loan & receivables | 1,298,851 | 1,354,080 | 1,386,121 | 1,411,561 | 1,362,653 | |
Impairment loss as % of Loan & Receivables | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | ||
RCE Capital | ||||||
RM'000 |
FY 15
|
FY 16
|
FY 17
|
FY 18 Q1
|
||
Revenue | 131,186 | 162,386 | 223,331 | |||
Profit After Tax | 26,816 | 39,571 | 78,949 | |||
Net profit margin% | 20.4% | 24.4% | 35.4% | #DIV/0! | ||
Net Impairment loss on Receivable | 23,937 | 30,870 | 27,132 |
6,000??
| ||
Loan & Receivables | 1,069,917 | 1,260,442 | 1,411,561 | |||
Impairment loss as % of Loan & Receivables | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | |||
AEON Credit | ||||||
RM'000 |
FY 15
|
FY 16
|
FY 17
|
FY 18 Q1
|
||
Revenue | 852,805 | 965,234 | 1,101,955 | 302,282 | ||
Profit After Tax | 207,369 | 228,222 | 265,027 | 75,812 | ||
Net profit margin% | 24.3% | 23.6% | 24.1% | 25.1% | ||
Net Impairment loss on Receivable | 224,917 | 288,420 | 306,163 | 82,651 | ||
Loan & receivables | 4,517,045 | 5,404,916 | 6,438,703 | 6,669,743 | ||
Impairment loss as % of Loan & Receivables | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 1.2% |
FY 17 | |||||||||
Price
|
No of shares (mil)
|
Market Cap (RM' mil)
|
PAT (RM'mil)
|
EPS (sen)
|
PE
|
PB
|
Dividend yield %
|
ROE
|
|
AEON Credit | 13.12 | 216 | 2,834 | 265 | 128.8 | 10.2 | 1.8 | 3.3% | 18.1% |
RCE Cap | 1.68 | 354 | 595 | 78.9 | 22.3 | 7.5 | 1.3 | 1.8% | 17.0% |
RCE Cap performance has improved drastically in FY 17 with the additional funding from Sukuk programme and its Loan and Receivables impairment ratio has come down from 2.6% to 2% (Aeon Credit is at around 5%). Unlike banks, from what I understand, RCE Cap is not subject to MFRS 9 that will come into effect on 1 Jan 2018, which has more stringent requirement on provision for credit losses. (Note: apologise for misrepresentation here, based on FY17 Annual Report issued on 21 July, RCE Cap is adopting MFRS 9 from FY 19 onwards).
To me, though RCE Cap appears smaller in scope and size, but its impairment seems well controlled and with better PB & PE in comparison, I believe it should give me potentially higher return on investment. The only constraint I see in RCE Cap is its funding. The Rm900 mil Sukuk programme is utilised close to Rm520 mil and it has short term loan Rm306 mil due for settlement this year, but the good news is it will be replacing old debts with Sukuk debt at a lower interest rate, which will improve its profit margin further.
Though the dividend appears lower in FY17 (partly due to the special dividend and capital repayment carried out in FY16 for more efficient capital structure), personally I am in favour of this capital allocation at this stage as it needs to retain more cash for lending and grow further. Due to the fund constraint, I am not surprise if it will issue more debt papers and may have a cash call for expansion. I will be more than happy to subscribe more if that come (Aeon Credit has just completed a right issue exercise lately).
Overall, I still believe the consumer financing sector has room to grow (AEON Credit Q1 FY18 shows promising growth) and similarly RCE Cap has good chance to deliver a higher profit in FY18. In the absence of any big negative news surrounding RCE Cap, I have just added more shares lately as I see it is still undervalued at 1.69 and I expect there will still be growth in its business.
No comments:
Post a Comment