The recent correction on Bursa (yes, all other indexes are rising except KLCI) has made many investors uneasy, me included even though over the last 2 months I have raised my cash level to more than 40% ( the % has risen marginally the last few days due to drop in equity value in the portfolio!!). The recent drop has erased a portion of my gain for the year.
Many reasons have been cited for the fall - foreign fund selling ( ride on the timing of ringgit appreciation?) , uncertainty on the forth coming general election, not so encouraging Q3 corporate earnings, etc etc. While this may provide the reasons on why stocks fall, I am more concerned on whether the business of the company I have invested has changed fundamentally or affected by these short term emotions or activity. I believe each of us would react differently in the current situation, some will just wait and see, some may sell first buy back later, some may start buying, going for short term trading, some may be searching for long term buy, etc.
I must admit I am not good at market timing or looking at technical chart to decide when to buy sell, hence, I have to rely on the company's performance to make the decision. I wish I had the crystal ball in front of me so that I could predict what is coming next, whether this is the end of the bull and arrival of a big bear or just a small teddy bear before the return of another little bull, etc.
Most importantly, do not keep highly geared or loss making company with no clear turnaround sign, as these companies may sink if the bear market prolong, especially with expectation of interest rate hike in coming years.
In a situation like now, I always remind myself, look at it as if that's my business, what would I do now when Mr Market keeps lowering the offer price for my business. Similarly, on the other side, there are some businesses where Mr Market keeps lowering the price to offer you opportunity to buy into their businesses too.
What I did some years back, I totally switched off and did not want to look at the share price anymore as they kept falling. Then I realised that I missed out opportunity to buy some value stocks cheap. What I learnt was that it was the best time to keep looking for value stocks with clear catalyst - either do some switching or start to buy. When the correction is over and market turn bullish, the value stocks with clear catalyst will start to rise first. Yes, I switched some of my holdings to those businesses that is growing fast (especially those I always wanted to buy but hard to find a good price to go in, this is the time).
In time like this, dividend stocks will provide me with additional fund to pick up more shares.
I will not utilise my 40% cash reserve as yet as I think it is just a minor correction. I am still keeping it until I see deep value with major correction.
Always bear in mind, we are investing in the business, its worth rest with business fundamental and prospects, not the price offers by the emotional Mr Market. Instead, offer to buy from Mr Market at extremely attractive price for businesses that we always wanted to get in.
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