Lately I heard some said the best strategy in stock investment is follow the big guys - fund managers. Study the stock pick by fund managers and invest in the same stocks as them could be a better strategy. Well I have reservation on the above approach, not only that, we have to exercise extra care when doing so.
It has been almost 2 years when I first wrote about Lafarge.
I was puzzled for a while when the price continued to scale higher even I thought price then was way above its intrinsic value. Not long later, the price plunge (more than 60%)!! The last few days saw some strong rebound as there are rumuors on revival of mega project, to me, it did not change my view on Lafarge as its financial position as well as cashflow looks real bad. If the only reason to buy is because it has dropped a lot, I think it can drop even further when it turns out -- just rumuors.
Sometimes overvalued or undervalued stock can continue to be wrongly priced , more so if they are tightly held by institutional investors until some of them started to accumulate/offload, it will then trigger a spinal effect and its true value will emerge.
Of course Lafarge is an easy pick for obvious case of overvaluation due to its poor financial performance and cashflow.
There are other bluechips that appeared to have been overpriced for a long period of time. Eg Nestle, DutchLady, QL but their business are highly profitable and with sound financials, they remained overpriced for a long long time..
I have no question about the sustainability of its business, quality of its management and financials, however, I am just puzzled on its valuation (whether its PE, PB, P/CF or dividend yield, except their ROE is exceptionally high) on what kind of return could we expect from investing in such overvalued and low yield stocks. Well, institutional investors have a different perspective, firstly they have a really long term holding power, secondly, especially in time of volatility, small return is better than negative return and as long as none of them started to offload ( still not yet), everyone is happy with holding on the 2 to 3 % yield overly priced bluechips. Well, if one of them start to offload when they realised the market is more stable and they could go for higher yield on undervalued stock, it may be too late for us to sell especially most of them are highly illiquid.
For me, following the fund managers to invest in these bluechips may not be a wise idea when the stock appears to be over valued.
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