Thursday, 5 October 2023

Bursa has something to offer too!

The last two years have seen many non-US investors/traders attracted to US equity and bond market for various reasons eg strong US dollar, high interest rate, poor local market performance (those I am aware of - HKEX, Bursa), super performance of superstar Tech giants - especially the magnificent 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Nvidia, Google, Amazon, Meta), resulting in more fund flow to US, more so when international funds trying to avoid HK/China market has also either go to US or Japan. 

 Of course, there are always contrarian investors who find HK/China market at very attractive valuation now, which we will only know in future whether this action will bring superb return in the next few years. As the saying goes, high can get higher and low can get lower, there are times this is right and there are times, it can be big mistake by hoping so in investing decision. 

Since stock investment over the last two years getting more complicated with the 3 highs - high interest rate, high inflation and high volatility, I tend to focus on risk first - diversification through ETF & different market, prudent capital allocation that minimize losses in the event of picking the bad company, try to select companies with healthy financial position and expected to be still profitable if there is recession (which many are expecting it will come soon). That lead me to look at Bursa which I have underweight for quite a while. 

There are these 3 sectors - plantation, glove and furniture - which I find could offer some bargain at this moment, better still if there is more negative news flow to make them bigger bargain. Covid pandemic has actually strengthen the financial position of some of the companies in these sectors and currently they are facing with various issues ( over capacity in glove, commodity price has come down for plantation, lower demand for furniture in US as interest rates has affected consumers' discretionary spending). 

Plantation and furniture appears cyclical in nature, so invest during down cycle should work, the uncertainty is when the cycle will turn. These are the few names that may be worth studying - Kossan, TaAnn, Jaya Tiasa, SOP, Lii Hen.

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