Wednesday, 30 August 2017

Financial Reporting - negligence or incompetence?


Image result for financial reporting images


The recent results announcement on Bursa has seen at least 2 companies amended their financial reports with "major" changes to the financial numbers. In the past, it was usually minor amendment on financial numbers or non key financial data, but this round, major change in profit figures and EPS for the quarter. Obviously, one of them has resulted in the share price dropped drastically in the morning and staged a strong rebound in the afternoon after the amendment.
I knew there are companies which practice proof reading as well as checking by different personnel other than the person who prepared the financial reports, they take this very seriously as it gives confidence to the investing community on the accuracy and reliability of the information provided.
Few years back, there was one PLC announced the results with a proposed dividend which surprised the market(more than 10% yield) and its share price went up sharply before it got suspended one hour later. Yes, it was an error, announced as 15 sen instead of 1.5 sen dividend. Fair enough, it was reprimanded by Bursa but what happened to the investors who bought the shares at the opening of market before suspension? Did they get compensated??


Most PLCs on Bursa Malaysia used a standard template as per Bursa's requirement and the wordings used are standardised too (could be some cut and paste jobs)! I believe most readers will check the section B1 - Review of Performance, B 2 -Comparison of results between current & preceding quarter & B 3 - Prospects. I find that many companies do not provide reasons for variances ( eg Revenue was lower this quarter due to lower sales or profit before tax was lower due to higher cost of raw materials, while this is not wrong but it did not provide useful info to the readers as to why??)


Annual Reports is one of the most important source of documents to investors who do not get involved in the day to day operation and affairs of the PLCs, hence, the reliance on the yearly reporting from PLCs to get some insight is critical (of course, going to AGM for more details would be the best choice). Many PLCs did not pay much attention to write up the operation and business review.
Worst, some do not even bother to have a proper write up for Chairman Statement in Annual Reports, especially the review of business and future outlook. No guidance is provided as to what the coming financial year look like or what is its challenges, plan, etc.


I have been reading some foreign PLC's announcement lately, most of them provide very good operational review, current challenges and strategies and action plan, I noted some even provide very detailed breakdown on its Capex on what %  are for sustaining, improving or growing business purposes.


Another area where smaller PLCs is lacking would be the company website. That is the primary source of information on the company's offering and development. What would be your first impression if you see the latest update was 3 years ago?? 


No doubt the financial reporting by PLCs has improved over the years (mostly by conglomerate and bigger PLCs), I believe there are still a lot need to be done especially for the small and mid cap companies (some don't even have proper content on their websites).
Can PLCs please take financial reporting and investors relation more seriously??

Sunday, 27 August 2017

Uchitec - Dividend Stock turn Growth Stock??


I have bought this dividend stock in 2015, so far the compounding annual return is 23% pa (absolute return about 70% in 2.5 years) , though this return has nothing to shout about because many stocks have returned many times more than this.  But hang on, I bought it because of its steady dividend and only expecting not more than 10% return p.a. Now, it has far exceeded my expectation and this has prompted me to review how to pick the right dividend stocks in the future.
Below are my earlier write up on dividend stock   
http://m-bagger.blogspot.com.au/2017/04/dividend-stock-strategy-good-enough-for.html
http://m-bagger.blogspot.com.au/2017/05/is-dividend-stock-strategy-fool-proof.html
Yes, it could be pure luck that I have picked Uchitec and not other dividend stocks. However, when I checked my little diary, I found the reason stated for the purchase in 2015- the company has come out with a energy saving modules that comply with European Eco-design requirements of having standby and off mode electrical power consumption of less than 0.5 watt. All right, dividend stock with clear growth strategy or new products/services ( probably that was the reason I did not go for BJToto or Magnum).
What do I do when dividend stock starts to grow? I believe the answer is obvious, sit back and enjoy the show. Who knows, this could just be the beginning of Uchitec's new growth phase and based on its past dividend payout record (average more than 90%), I would expect higher dividend per share (>13 sen) for FY17 (even at 13sen , it is still a decent 5.9% yield based on Rm2.20).  
UCHI TECHNOLOGIES BHD (7100) Chart
I hope I can use the same approach to find other similar dividend stocks that have growth potential. Some of the potential dividend stocks that I have on my list - Asia File, FPI(recently only started to buy but price went up too fast :( , Bermaz Auto (I know, IB not bullish on this sector), Old Town and Cocoaland. But the bad news is they are not in my buy zone yet.
Please do your own assessment on Uchitec or any of the potential dividend stock above as this is not a recommendation to buy these stocks. Merely for sharing purposes.

     Image result for Dividend Growth

Tuesday, 22 August 2017

TuneProtect - taking off early?

Image result for tune protect logo
I have bought some TuneProtect shares earlier this year and always wanted to buy more but was holding back due to Q1 results not showing any indication it has put in place strategy to counter the opt in ruling for its travel insurance, worst, the high claim for motor insurance has caused a big fall in its profit.


Q2 results was just released last Friday (18 Aug) and the share price did not react much even though results was down >50% YOY.
FY16 (RM'000)    
FY17 (RM'000)
Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1
Q2
Revenue Investment Holding                 5                 8              13                 9
            836
           621
  Collective Investment Scheme         4,969        4,841        4,662        4,891         2,542        1,561
  General ReInsurance -Rev       17,291      15,760      16,362      15,539       13,843      16,143
  General Insurance -Rev    107,279    104,926
   105,039
   115,027
   112,860    115,553
  Total -Rev    129,544    125,535
   126,076
   135,466
   130,081
   133,878
 
 
PBT Investment Holding       18,853      15,106      (4,908)      (3,841)       40,501        4,655
  Collective Investment Scheme         4,763        4,509        4,498
       3,571
        2,474        1,423
  General ReInsurance -PBT       16,582      14,482      13,914
     14,856
      11,494      13,250
 
General Insurance -PBT
      11,547      24,298
       7,445
       4,992
        9,436
       1,987
  Total       51,745      58,395      20,949      19,578       63,905
     21,315
 
Adjustment
   (25,748)
 (23,222)
     (4,248)
     (2,766)
   (48,841)
     (8,212)
  Consolidated PBT
      25,997
     35,173      16,701      16,812       15,064      13,103
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
PBT margin
General ReInsurance
95.9%
91.9%
85.0%
95.6% 83.0% 82.1%
 
General Insurance
10.8% 23.2%
7.1%
4.3% 8.4% 1.7%












We can see that Q2 FY17 revenue has improved from Q1 but PBT was clearly disappointing. The results from Q2 clearly confirmed the reason given by the company that its claims on general insurance was high, I believe mostly from motor insurance. The recent appointment of CEO and actuary - one to address the sales & marketing and another to improve its actuarial development further stressed the seriousness of the matter.
What surprised me was that the share price did not react badly yesterday after the results was announced last Friday. I recalled a friend asked me what was my target entry price about 2 weeks ago when it was at around Rm1.03. I replied the price was already attractive but I wanted to wait for Q2 results as it was expected to be bad,  also hoping to buy some at even more attractive price. When I noted it did not really fall yesterday, I bought some at Rm1.00 and when the buying momentum built up, I bought some at Rm1.05 today. It is really unexpected as after bad Q1 results, the price dropped from May to Aug and now, Q2 results are not that encouraging except revenue is improving but profit still dropped due to high claims. Expectation already well built in its price earlier..the only explanation.  May add a little more when the price stabilise later as today is clearly very "hot". As I said before, I like TuneProtect for its scalability and asset light model. As it is on top of my shopping list, I wanted to wait further and hope to buy at lower price but at the same time worry that it will take off earlier than I thought. I hope I am not in too early ..of course I do not want to miss the flight either! Howard Marks once said " Risks of investment - not just risk of losing money but also risk of missing opportunity!".
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Are there many low hanging fruits in stock market now?

When I was a little kid and lived in a small village, one of my activities to pass time was looking for low hanging fruits from mango, rose ...